There Are 4 Types of Housing Markets Right Now. Which 1 Are You In?

National housing headlines treat the market as one thing. It is not. Right now there are four very different groups moving through it at the same time: cash buyers, buyers using financing, owners who feel locked into a low rate, and builders with homes to sell. Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT, put it bluntly:

“There is no longer a housing market . . . There are four Americas.”

Which group someone is in changes how they should buy or sell. In Kansas City, the local numbers add one more layer: the same group can face different conditions depending on the county and the price point.

Cash Buyers: About 1 in 4 Purchases

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 26% of existing home sales this summer were all-cash. Many of those buyers are current owners using equity from a previous home. Realtor.com data shows cash purchases are concentrated at the very top and very bottom of the price range:

For buyers: An offer with no financing contingency stands out to sellers and can mean a faster close and more room to negotiate.

For sellers: A cash offer usually carries less risk of falling apart, but that certainty sometimes comes with a lower number. Compare the net result, not just the word “cash.”

In Kansas City: Price point matters here. In August 2026, the most recent month reported, the median sale price was $465,173 in Johnson County, Kansas, and $295,000 in Jackson County, Missouri. A seller near either end of a county’s price range is more likely to see cash interest than one in the middle.

Buyers Using Financing: Help Is Coming From Sellers, Not Rates

Buyers taking out a mortgage should not count on rates falling soon. Fannie Mae data shows nearly half of experts raised their long-term rate forecast this year:

That is hard on financed buyers, especially first-time buyers. The offset is negotiation. Redfin data shows almost half of May sales nationally included a concession such as a rate buydown or closing-cost credit from the seller.

For buyers: Rather than waiting on rates, negotiate for the help that matters most. If the payment works today, that is the signal.

For sellers: Expect some negotiation, and consider building room for a concession into the pricing plan from the start.

In Kansas City: Room to negotiate depends on where the house is. Sellers across the greater Kansas City region received 97.7% of their original list price in August. In Johnson County it was 99.7%; in Jackson County, 97.6%. The national concession figure is a guide, not a rule, for a local negotiation.

Rate-Locked Owners: Most Have a Rate Under 5%

About 2 in 3 homeowners with a mortgage have a rate under 5%, according to Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data:

Giving up a rate that low to take on a higher one is a hard sell, so many owners stay put. Fannie Mae data shows most experts expect that lock-in effect to last another three to five years.

For buyers: Fewer owners are listing, but the ones who do usually have a real reason to move. That can make them more flexible.

For sellers: Run the numbers on what current equity actually buys before ruling out a move. Owners with an FHA or VA loan can ask a lender whether the loan is assumable. It is uncommon, but it can be a meaningful selling point.

In Kansas City: The local supply numbers are consistent with that hesitation. Total inventory across the region was 8,305 homes in August, down 4.8% from a year earlier, with 2.6 months of supply. Johnson County was down 7.5% to 1,610 homes. Fewer owners listing is a big part of why resale supply here stays tight.

Homebuilders: More Willing To Negotiate

According to the latest Census data, builders nationally have enough unsold new homes to last nearly 10 months at the current sales pace, well above the typical four to six months. That is pushing builders toward price cuts and rate buydowns.

For buyers: New construction may be where the most negotiating room is. Use separate representation and compare the full incentive package, not only the price.

For sellers: Compete on what a builder cannot offer: mature landscaping, an established neighborhood, and a house that is ready now rather than months from now.

In Kansas City: The Census figure is national and measures new homes, so it is not directly comparable to the local resale numbers. The contrast is still worth noticing. Resale supply here is around two to three months by county, while builders nationally are carrying far more. A buyer weighing a new home against a resale home in Kansas City may find the leverage sitting on very different sides of those two deals.

Which Market Are You In?

Most people fit more than one group. A rate-locked owner who wants to move becomes a seller and a buyer at once, and may be a cash buyer if the equity is large enough. Sorting that out takes three questions:

• How will the next purchase be paid for? Cash, a new loan, or proceeds from a sale change the offer strategy.
• What does the current rate cost to give up? The difference between today’s payment and the next one is the real price of moving, not the headline rate.
• Where is the leverage locally? A resale home in a tight county, a resale home where contract activity has cooled, and a builder’s spec home are three different negotiations.

Munkel Real Estate Solutions works through those questions with the county and price-point numbers in hand, because a strategy that fits a cash buyer at the top of one county’s price range can be exactly wrong for a financed buyer at the entry level of another.

Bottom Line

Four different housing markets are running at once, and each plays by its own rules. In Kansas City, tight resale supply and real differences between counties add another layer. The right move starts with knowing which group you are in and where the leverage sits in your part of the metro.

Sources: SERHANT; National Association of Realtors (NAR); Realtor.com; Fannie Mae; Redfin; Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA); U.S. Census Bureau; Heartland MLS and the Kansas City Regional Association of REALTORS® (KCRAR), August 2026 Greater Kansas City Fast Stats and Local Market Updates for Johnson County, KS and Jackson County, MO.