Home Price Growth Slowed Down. That May Be Changing.

The “prices are going to crash” story has been louder than the data has warranted for the past two years. More than a year of headlines warned of a collapse. What the numbers now show is different: not a boom, but a clear shift in direction worth paying attention to, whether buying or selling is on the table.

The Numbers May Be Starting To Turn

Home price growth spent much of the past two years moderating. From a peak of around 7% in mid-2024, the pace of annual appreciation cooled steadily, according to Redfin (see graph below).

That moderation was not a crash. It was a correction, with the market finding a more sustainable pace after the unusual acceleration of 2020 through 2022. But recent data shows that the moderation may have run its course. Look at the right side of the chart: the line has stopped falling and started to turn.

A couple of months of data does not confirm a lasting trend. But this Redfin data is not the only signal pointing in the same direction.

Fewer Markets Are Seeing Price Declines

This is where the picture gets more specific. According to ResiClub and Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest U.S. housing markets were experiencing falling prices as recently as mid-2025. Since the start of 2026, that share has been shrinking. As of the latest data, only 23% of those markets are experiencing price declines (see graph below).

That is a meaningful shift. When more than a third of major markets are declining and then fewer than a quarter are, it tells a directional story. The market is not collapsing, and it is not uniformly recovering, either. It is moving.

What matters here is how people read national headlines. “Home prices are falling” or “home prices are rising” sounds definitive, but national figures are aggregates. The more useful signal is not the headline number but the share of markets on each side of zero, and that share has shifted materially over the past several months.

What the Data Is Actually Saying About Local Markets

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, put it plainly: “local markets continue to tell very different stories. Annual home price growth has changed little since the start of the year, but some markets, especially those supported by strong job and income growth in the West and more affordable Midwest markets, have seen notable acceleration in price gains.”

That last clause deserves attention. Affordable Midwest markets are specifically identified as showing accelerating price gains, not just holding steady, but moving faster than the national average would suggest.

The latest Redfin metro-level data adds weight to this. Just last month, more than half of the major U.S. metros tracked by Redfin showed prices going up (see graph below).

Not long ago, the major metros were split roughly 50/50, with half rising and half falling. The balance has tipped. That does not mean every market is recovering at the same pace, and it does not mean the recovery is guaranteed to hold. But it does mean the broad-based price decline many predicted has not materialized, and the current directional trend is moving the other way.

What This Means If You Are Buying or Selling Now

For buyers: the window that slower price growth created has been real, but it appears to be narrowing rather than widening. Prices in most major markets are now either stable or rising. Waiting for lower prices means betting against a trend that the data says is shifting. That is not an argument for rushing in without financial readiness. It is an argument that the case for waiting on prices alone has weakened considerably, and buyers who have been holding back on that basis alone should revisit the assumption.

For sellers and current homeowners: the equity story has been more durable than the headlines suggested. Price growth slowed; it did not reverse for most owners. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, projects the typical homeowner will gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth this year. If the current trend holds and price growth picks back up, those gains could accelerate. Sellers who have been waiting for conditions to improve may find that the shift is already underway.

For both: a few months of improving data is not a new market cycle, and it is worth being honest about that uncertainty. The signals point in a better direction, but decisions about when to move should still account for individual financial position, timeline, and the specific conditions of the property and submarket in question, not just the national average.

What this market does not need is another oversimplified headline. Prices are not crashing. They are not roaring back. They are doing what complex national markets do: sending early signals of a shift while the broader story is still being written.

Munkel Real Estate Solutions works with buyers and sellers who want to understand what those signals actually mean for their specific situation, not just the national average, but the type of property, the price point, and the market conditions that actually apply to the decision they are making.

Sources: Redfin; ResiClub and Zillow; Cotality (Selma Hepp, Chief Economist); National Association of Realtors (Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist)