The Truth About Affordability Today

Affordability is the most-cited reason buyers in the KC metro say they are waiting. It is also the most misunderstood condition in today's housing market — because the factors that determine affordability have been shifting in ways that don't show up in most of the coverage people are reading.

Christopher Munkel tracks affordability conditions across Johnson County and the KC metro through Heartland MLS data and national economic indicators monthly. Here is what the data actually shows.

Mortgage Rates: Where Things Actually Stand

Rates moved in 2025 and into 2026 after touching multi-year highs. Global economic uncertainty, persistent inflation in certain sectors, and Federal Reserve positioning have all contributed to volatility. The honest read: rates are not where buyers hoped they would be. But they are meaningfully lower than their recent peak, and the buyers waiting for a return to 3% are waiting for something no credible forecast supports in the near term.

The more productive question is what the current rate environment means for purchasing power in a specific market. In Johnson County, where the average sales price is tracking at $569,670 year-to-date in 2026, a rate in the mid-6% range produces a real monthly payment. That payment exists in the context of wages that have been growing faster than home prices — which is the part of the affordability equation that rarely gets adequate attention.

Wages Are Outpacing Home Price Growth

This is the most important data point in the current affordability conversation. Wages have been increasing at approximately 4% year-over-year nationally while home price growth has slowed to approximately 2%. When income grows faster than prices, purchasing power improves even when rates hold steady.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, has described the current conditions as the first time in several years that the underlying forces are aligned toward gradual affordability improvement. Not a snap-back — a steady tailwind.

In Johnson County, the income profile of the buyer pool tends to run above national averages given the concentration of corporate employers in the corridor. That income advantage interacts favorably with even an elevated rate environment for qualified buyers.

Home Prices in Johnson County Are Not Falling

Nationally, prices have stabilized at a slower growth rate after an abnormal pandemic-era run-up. In Johnson County, prices are still appreciating. Munkel Real Estate Solutions market data through Heartland MLS shows Johnson County average sales prices up 3.5% year-over-year through early 2026, tracking at $569,670 year-to-date against a full-year 2025 average of $563,562.

Buyers waiting for a significant price correction in Johnson County are waiting for something the supply data does not support. At 1.8 months of available inventory, the market does not have the excess supply that drives meaningful price declines. Sellers in Overland Park, Leawood, and Prairie Village are receiving 98.9 cents on every dollar of asking price. That is not the data profile of a market under pricing pressure.

What Affordability Actually Looks Like in Johnson County Right Now

The buyers transacting in Johnson County today are not doing so because affordability is easy. They are doing so because the calculation between waiting and acting has shifted. Every month spent waiting is continued rent, continued separation from equity accumulation, and continued exposure to the possibility that prices move higher before rates move lower.

The question is not whether affordability is perfect. It is whether the current conditions support a specific transaction given a specific financial profile — and that answer varies significantly by price point, income level, and down payment position.

Bottom Line

Affordability in the KC metro is not solved. But it has improved, and the improvement is being driven by the right variables — income growth outpacing price growth, inventory stabilizing, and rate volatility moderating from its peak. For buyers in Johnson County who have been on the sidelines, the data increasingly supports a conversation about whether current conditions make a transaction workable.

That analysis, built on current Heartland MLS data and local market conditions, is the starting point for every buyer conversation at Munkel Real Estate Solutions.

Market data sourced from Heartland MLS and KCRAR FastStats. National economic data sourced from First American Financial Corporation and Bureau of Labor Statistics.